Ubineer Joins CAPIS for March 2026 Research Briefing

President Andi Kerenxhi was pleased to join Ed O'Dowd of Capital Institution Services (CAPIS) in a podcast to outline our perspective, platform and new product offerings.

Ubineer invites you to listen in full or check the transcript summary below for details.

00:00 — Introduction: AI-Driven Research and Focus on Mega-Cap Tech

Ed O’Dowd opens the March CAPIS Monthly Research Briefing, introducing Andi Kerenxhi of Ubineer. He frames today’s session as a continuation of CAPIS’ ongoing series featuring differentiated research perspectives, highlighting Ubineer’s use of AI to enhance fundamental analysis.

01:24 — AI CapEx: A “New Industrial Revolution”

Andi describes the current AI investment cycle as “insane—in a good way,” likening it to a new industrial revolution. He outlines Ubineer’s approach of converting financial data into predictions, identifying anomalies to reduce manual research and testing whether investment theses are already priced into markets. He emphasizes that AI is transforming how institutional investors validate conviction and assess forward-looking expectations.

Andi explains that today’s presentation will continue with his previous analyses of NFLX, META, GOOG, MSFT and AMZN, analyzing Ubineer’s estimates versus actual performance and then taking a look at Nvidia and its role in market structure. .

05:30 — Netflix: Content Strategy, Pricing Power, and Growth Outlook

Andi revisits his prior Netflix thesis: increased amount of content drives value, and monetization comes through an influx of users and higher pricing.

Key takeaways:

• Revenue growth broadly tracked expectations (17.4%), though not perfectly.
• Strategic change hinges on content acquisition (e.g., attempted Warner Bros. Discovery deal). The deal failure did not alter the core thesis.
• User growth appears to be plateauing.

Forward-looking insight:

• The next major lever is pricing power, with potential price hikes expected within the next 2–3 quarters.
• Rising streaming obligations signal continued investment in platform value.

9:00 — Meta: Ad Pricing, AI Spend, and Escalating CapEx Commitments

For Meta, Andi shares his thesis that revenue growth would be driven by the number of ads shown and price per ad.

Both prior predictions held: Advertising growth accelerated over the last two quarters (~25%+) and CapEx continued rising alongside revenue.

Total obligations surged from ~$80B to ~$240B, reflecting aggressive long-term AI investment. Meta is intentionally reinvesting cash flow into AI infrastructure as long as it continues driving revenue growth. Andi also reiterates the longer-term “call option” on Meta through AI-enabled hardware (glasses).

13:10 — Alphabet (Google): Cloud Growth and CapEx “Catch-up”

Andi highlights Google Cloud as the previously overlooked “sleeping giant.” Cloud growth accelerated from ~30% to ~47%. Google issued CapEx guidance for the first time ever (~$175–185B). Growth is being driven by signed contracts (remaining performance obligations). RPO surged from sub-$100B to ~$250B, indicating strong forward demand.

16:00— Microsoft & Amazon: Cloud Demand, Upgrades, and Cash Flow Deployment

For Microsoft, revenue growth was driven by deat count, cloud + AI spend and customer upgrades (365 E5 → E7 licenses). Seat count concerns exist due to AI, but no clear deterioration yet. ~$625B+ in unmet demand highlights capacity constraints.

For Amazon, Andi’s predictions for Q4 and Q1 were that world e-commerce would be a key driver for revenue growth, as well as cloud and AI spend. Today’s numbers show e-commerce stabilizing and AWS growth accelerating. Free cash flow expected to turn negative due to heavy CapEx. RPO jumped in one quarter from 20% to ~ 40%, supporting continued investment.

21:20 — NVIDIA and the Scale of AI Infrastructure Spending

Andi shifts to NVIDIA as the central beneficiary of AI investment. Total AI CapEx projected to rise from ~$443B → ~$755B YoY. ~40–50% of that spend flows to NVIDIA.

NVIDIA’s data center revenue expanded from < $20B → ~$200B post-ChatGPT. CEO commentary suggests ~$1T in future demand visibility. Its greatest risk is supply chain constraints. However, inventory (+100% YoY) and purchase obligations (~$95B) suggest NVIDIA has secured supply capacity.

25:50 — Why Mega-Cap Tech is Lagging: Capital Deployment vs. Cash Accumulation

Andi addresses a central market question: Why is large tech (the Mag 8) underperforming relative to global markets? His view is that these companies are now spenders, not accumulators. Capital is flowing outward to suppliers, infrastructure providers and global markets. An additional factor is uncertainty around future free cash flow durability.

Using AI agents simulating investor behavior, Andi demonstrates that no solid consensus exists on future cash flow expectations for FY 2026 nor 2027. This lack of clarity is contributing to market hesitation.

29:23 — Q&A: Strategic Risks Across Big Tech

Entering the Q&A portion of the MRB, Ed asks which companies face the most strategic challenges moving forward. Andi highlights Microsoft (seat count uncertainty) and Meta (must justify massive AI spend if revenue growth slows).

31:05 — Oracle and AI Infrastructure Monetization

Andi pushes back against the “AI bubble” narrative, arguing that the market is still in its early stages.

On Oracle:

• Strong monetization of data center capacity
• Growth tied to remaining performance obligations vs. purchase obligations
• NVIDIA may be enabling new competitors by allocating supply strategically

32:47 — Regulatory Risks & Impact Relative to AI Tailwinds

Addressing recent court cases against Meta and Google, Andi states that financial penalties are immaterial relative to the revenue scale, and the core driver remains user engagement (time spent on platforms).

34:14 — What the Market Needs to See Next: Proof of Monetization

Andi outlines the key condition for market confidence: Continued growth in cash flow from operations. There’s evidence that AI spend is generating real revenue, not subsidized usage. He emphasizes that this is the core debate in markets today, and if proven, current investment levels will be validated.

35:50 — Closing Remarks and April MRB Preview

Ed closes the session, thanking Andi and previewing the next CAPIS briefing with Markets Policy Partners, who will return on Thursday, April 16 to discuss macroeconomic and geopolitical themes.

Source: https://capis.com